Free tool
Failed payment recovery calculator
On $50,000 of MRR with 5% failing first try, recovering 40% loses $18,000 a year, and 55% recovery saves $4,500.
- Failed renewals per month
- $2,500
- Recovered per month
- $1,000
- Lost per month
- $1,500
- Lost per year
- $18,000
- Saved per year at 55.0% recovery
- $4,500
- Saved per month
- $375
How this was worked out
- $50,000 of MRR times a 5.0% failed payment rate is $2,500 of renewals that fail on the first try each month.
- At a 40.0% recovery rate you win back $1,000 of that, so $1,500 is not recovered.
- Over 12 months that is $1,500 times 12, which is $18,000 lost.
- At a 55.0% recovery rate you would win back $1,375, leaving $1,125 lost per month.
- The difference is $375 a month, or $4,500 a year.
How the calculator works
Some renewals fail on the first attempt because of an expired card, a temporary decline or an insufficient balance. Enter your monthly recurring revenue, the share of renewal value that fails on the first try, the share you recover today and a second recovery rate to compare. The tool shows the revenue that fails each month, what you win back, what is lost, and what moving to the comparison rate would save over a year.
In symbols: failed = MRR x failure rate, recovered = failed x recovery rate, lost per month = (failed - recovered) x months, lost per year = lost per month x 12, and saved per year = failed x (comparison rate - today) x months x 12. The optional months input counts how long a lost subscriber would have stayed. At the default of 1 only the missed renewal is counted, and a higher number multiplies the loss.
Worked examples
A small subscription business: $20,000 of MRR with 4% failing on the first try gives $800 of failed renewals a month. Recovering 30% wins back $240, so $560 is lost each month and $6,720 over a year. At 55% recovery the saving is $2,400 a year.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Monthly recurring revenue | $20,000 |
| Renewal value that fails first try | 4% |
| Recovery rate today | 30% |
| Recovery rate to compare | 55% |
| Failed renewals per month | $800 |
| Recovered per month | $240 |
| Lost per month | $560 |
| Lost per year | $6,720 |
| Saved per year at the comparison rate | $2,400 |
A larger base that counts the full cost of a lost subscriber: $120,000 of MRR, 7% failing, 50% recovered today and 70% as the comparison, where a lost subscriber would have stayed 6 months. Failed renewals are $8,400 a month, $302,400 is lost a year, and the comparison rate saves $120,960 a year.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Monthly recurring revenue | $120,000 |
| Renewal value that fails first try | 7% |
| Recovery rate today | 50% |
| Recovery rate to compare | 70% |
| Failed renewals per month | $8,400 |
| Recovered per month | $4,200 |
| Lost per month | $25,200 |
| Lost per year | $302,400 |
| Saved per year at the comparison rate | $120,960 |
What a year of failed payments costs at each recovery rate
The table keeps the defaults of $50,000 MRR and 5% failing first try, and changes only today's recovery rate. Each step in recovery changes the loss, and the defaults show $18,000 lost at 40%.
| Recovery rate | Recovered per month | Lost per month | Lost per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $500 | $2,000 | $24,000 |
| 40% | $1,000 | $1,500 | $18,000 |
| 55% | $1,375 | $1,125 | $13,500 |
| 70% | $1,750 | $750 | $9,000 |
| 85% | $2,125 | $375 | $4,500 |
What Stripe publishes
The comparison rate starts at 55%, the average failed payment recovery rate Stripe states on its Billing product page (read 18 Oct 2026). It is an average across businesses using that product, not a promise for yours, so replace it with your own number when you have one. Stripe's Smart Retries documentation recommends 8 tries within 2 weeks as its default retry setting (read 18 Oct 2026). Retry timing is one part of recovery, and card update emails and a clear billing page matter as well.
Edge cases and how the tool treats them
- A comparison rate below today's rate is allowed. With recovery today at 60% and the comparison at 40% the tool shows -$6,000 instead of an error, with a note that this is a loss.
- Every rate runs from 0 to 100. At 100% recovery the loss is $0, and at 0% it is $30,000 a year on the defaults.
- Months a lost subscriber would have stayed must be 1 or more. Setting it to 3 takes the yearly loss on the defaults from $18,000 to $54,000.
- Failure rate is a share of renewal value, not of customers. If expensive plans fail more often than cheap ones, enter the value share.
- Percentages of cents are rounded half up at each step, so the figures match a manual check.
What counts as a failed payment here?
A renewal that does not succeed on its first attempt. At the defaults, 5% of $50,000 of MRR is $2,500 a month. Many of those can still be recovered, which is what the recovery rate measures.
What is a recovery rate?
The share of failed renewals you win back through retries, card updates and reminders. At 40% the defaults recover $1,000 of $2,500 and lose $1,500 each month.
Where does the starting comparison rate come from?
It is Stripe's published average of 55% for businesses using Stripe Billing, read 18 Oct 2026 on stripe.com/billing. Treat it as context. Your own mix of cards, regions and plans decides what you can reach.
Why is the saving smaller than the loss?
The saving counts only the extra recovery between your rate and the comparison rate. On the defaults, moving from 40% to 55% saves $4,500 a year, while the loss at today's rate is $18,000 a year.
What does the months input change?
It multiplies each unrecovered renewal by the months that subscriber would have stayed. At 1 the base figures hold. At 3 the yearly loss on the defaults becomes $54,000 and the saving becomes $13,500.
Does a card held at sign-up change failed payments?
It can. A card that passed a hold at sign-up was able to cover the plan price on that day, so later failures often come from changes such as expiry or a lower balance. Measure your own failure rate for first renewals and later renewals separately, and enter the one you are modelling.
Can I rely on the result as a forecast?
It is a sum of the numbers you enter, not a prediction. Recovery depends on your customers, your retry schedule and the reasons cards fail. Use the tool to compare scenarios and to decide what is worth measuring next.
Sources
- Average failed-payment recovery rate Stripe publishes for businesses using Stripe Billing, read 18 Oct 2026.
- Stripe Smart Retries recommended default, read 18 Oct 2026.
Related tools
Unrecovered renewals end as churn, so the churn rate calculator shows the cancellation side and the MRR calculator shows how churned MRR reaches your monthly total. The customer lifetime value calculator turns a higher retention rate into the value of a customer, and the ROI calculator prices a better trial to paid rate. The SaaS metrics glossary covers payment recovery and involuntary churn.